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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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$27.00
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Manufacturer: Random House
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Binding: Hardcover
Dewey Decimal Number: 003.54
EAN: 9781400063512
ISBN: 1400063515
Label: Random House
Manufacturer: Random House
Number Of Items: 1
Number Of Pages: 400
Publication Date: 2007-04-17
Publisher: Random House
Release Date: 2007-04-17
Studio: Random House
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Editorial Reviews:
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A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.
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Spotlight customer reviews:
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Customer Rating:
Summary: A Major Achievement -- Don't Miss It!
Comment: Most of the criticisms of Taleb and this book seem sensible:
- His confidence sometimes seems to reach the level of condescending arrogance.
- With a wave of the hand, he dismisses those he disagrees with, even Nobel prize winners. And perhaps he oversimplifies their positions in order to argue with their straw-man shadows.
- He often circles around his points without winding up finally making his points clear. Is this how a supposedly street-smart guy should talk?
- His frequent digressions make it hard for the reader to follow the thread of his narrative, sometimes giving the impression that there actually is no such thread, and that we're just witnessing his stream of consciousness.
- One could argue that the more technical chapters are written poorly and are therefore too unclear.
- Many of his ideas aren't as original as he seems to imply, so maybe he needs to explicitly give more credit to others.
- His suggestions on investing aren't very specific, and one wonders if they rely too much on luck or being rich in the first place.
- His references to his anger suggest a need for personal growth.
But this book easily deserves 5 stars and its bestseller status. Why?
- Taleb's erudition is undeniable, and a strong case can be made for his iconoclastic brilliance as well. In a book like this, perhaps the usual modesty and humility wouldn't make sense?
- His criticism of his opponents may have more validity than we normally want to admit in polite society. It's scary to think that economists and others in finance are generally as clueless as Taleb suggests, but recent events seem to have significantly (and unfortunately) vindicated him.
- His refusal to get right to the point pushes you to think more deeply about the implications of his ideas, rather than just quickly saying "yes, that's obvious, so what?" It's not enough to merely understand something; it has to sink in, in a way that genuinely changes your worldview and approach.
- Once you drop your preconceptions of how a book should be written, most of his digressions are fun and many are quite insightful. For an open-minded person with an intellectual inclination, this can be a tremendously entertaining book (it certainly was for me). Taleb deploys his own intellect and erudition for us with an unusual frankness which is worthy of our appreciation; instead of being put off by it, enjoy the ride!
- I do think the technical chapters are lacking but, alas, it's hard to write a perfect book, especially for an audience with varying technical background. I think we can cut him some slack here.
- His ideas may not be entirely original, but the way he's woven them together and presented them with flourish certainly is. Ideas need to be communicated to have any value, and Taleb can surely deliver his ideas in a way that has lasting impact on the reader.
- This book is about black swans in general, not investing in particular, so let's not get carried away if the book doesn't provide a how-to guide on getting or staying rich. And Taleb's general advice to arrange safeguards against financial disaster, and also get exposure to potentially huge opportunities, certainly seems sensible.
- His anger surprises and even disappoints at first, but one eventually starts to wonder if it might not be at least partly justified. Things might be worse than we want to believe. After all, isn't that part of his thesis? Plus he does end on a very positive note.
The bottom line is that this book is truly unique in its ability to intellectually entertain while conveying some deep insight and wisdom. Few people in the world have the right intersection of ingredients to produce a book like this, so we should cherish the fact that the book exists. Even if you don't fully agree with him, Taleb is worth engaging with.
I've read this book in print and also listened to the excellent unabridged audiobook, and I look forward to returning to it at least a few more times in the future. This book changed my outlook in some fundamental ways, and I think that's about as much as we can hope for with any book.
Very highly recommended. Indeed, don't miss it!
Customer Rating:
Summary: Outliers
Comment: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
This book is especially relevant in these "turbulent" economic times. In a way, this book is an example of the subject which it discusses, in that it is far removed from the conventional or "normal" book on the role of chance in our lives, including the financial realm. It will make you think harder than you ever have before about your comfortable assumptions concerning "randomness". But more than that, it will teach you to be a better critical thinker by practicing skepticism daily. I have been using selected readings from this book in an informal "seminar" on the current financial "crisis", and it has provided many very useful contributions to the discussion. As an engineer in aviation safety, I am very interested in the unexpected and the unanticipated, and the tradeoffs between the costs of preventing accidents and the costs of having them happen. Although this book does not directly discuss this particular area, the principles it espouses are very relevant. I highly recommend this book for a thought-provoking and enjoyable read.
Customer Rating:
Summary: Not a history of black swan events
Comment: I think I expected something different, like a presentation of various black swan type events. The author, comments and speaks and comments in an essay style which I found dissapointing. Same valid for his other book: Fooled by Randomness.I think readers will get a better deal if they read "Extraordinary Illusions and Madness of the Crowds" as well as most of the shareholder letters posted on gurufocus.com.
Customer Rating:
Summary: Open your mind
Comment: I must recognize that through the easy and entertaining Mr Taleb's style, I have adquired a wider vision of how we, as human beings, mostly and unreasonably make predictions.
300 pages would have been enough (it has 400, at least in spanish edition).
Nevertheless, I highly recommend this book. Open you mind and have fun!
Customer Rating:
Summary: Interesting...if you can get past his enormous ego
Comment: It's too bad Taleb's ego is louder than his thesis. While he puts forth many interesting and insightful concepts and thoughts, the price one must pay to find them amongst the egocentric drivel that fills most of the pages makes this read hardly worth the effort. I can't help but think that the basic arguments from such a pretentious elitist could only be hot air. It's hard to take him seriously.
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